Port Byron, IL · Rock Island County

Burke Overlook Yield Forecast

41.6455° N, -90.3261° W · 254.1 tillable ac · corn / soybean rotation

updated —

Aerial view of the farmstead: barn, grain bins, and soybean and corn fields under a summer sky

Season position

0% of critical windows observed

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

corn silking window soybean pod-fill window — confidence range narrows as these windows are observed, not forecast-filled

Corn 2026 projection

— bu / acre

county model + farm bias correction

— confidence range —

GDD anomaly

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Precip anomaly (silking)

—

Heat stress days (86°F+)

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Planting delay (proxy)

—

Soybean 2026 projection

— bu / acre

county model + farm bias correction

— confidence range —

GDD anomaly

—

Precip anomaly (pod-fill)

—

Heat stress days (86°F+)

—

Planting delay (proxy)

—

Soybean field with the farmstead in the background

Farm yield vs. county trend

county NASS history (1994–2025) · farm actuals in solid markers

Model basis

Weather-adjusted trend regression fit on 29–30 years of Rock Island County NASS yield history, bias-corrected to this farm using confirmed 2023–2024 actuals.

Corn model: R² 0.862
Soybean model: R² 0.692
Weather source: NASA POWER, farm coordinates

2025 farm yield excluded from calibration — unconfirmed

Known limitations

Planting date is a weather-derived proxy, not the renter's actual date
Bias correction rests on only 2 trusted farm-years so far
Remainder of season filled with 32-yr normals until observed