Port Byron, IL · Rock Island County

Burke Overlook Yield Forecast

41.6455° N, -90.3261° W · 254.1 tillable ac · corn / soybean rotation

updated —

Aerial view of the farmstead: barn, grain bins, and soybean and corn fields under a summer sky

Season position

0% of critical windows observed

APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OCT

corn silking window soybean pod-fill window

Precipitation since Apr 1 — —

7-day outlook Corn ETc —i | Soybean ETc —i | QPF —

Corn 2026 projection

— bu / acre^*

county model + farm bias correction

— 80% confidence range —

— vs. yesterday | — vs. last week

GDD anomalyi

—

Precip anomaly (silking)

—

Heat stress days (86°F+)

—

Planting delay (proxy)

—

Soybean 2026 projection

— bu / acre^*

county model + farm bias correction

— 70% confidence range —

— vs. yesterday | — vs. last week

GDD anomalyi

—

Precip anomaly (pod-fill)

—

Heat stress days (86°F+)

—

Planting delay (proxy)

—

- confidence range is a 30-year historical analog ensemble, not a fixed percentage -

Soybean field with the farmstead in the background

Farm yield vs. county trend

county NASS history (1994–2025) · farm actuals in solid markers

Rock Island Co. yield 5-yr avg farm actual

Model basis

Weather-adjusted trend regression fit on 29–30 years of Rock Island County NASS yield history, bias-corrected to this farm using confirmed 2020–2025 actuals.

Corn model: R² 0.869
Soybean model: R² 0.697
Weather source: NASA POWER, farm coordinates

Known limitations

Yield model's planting-delay driver uses a weather-derived proxy for all years (kept consistent with how it was trained). Real planting dates are used directly in the ETc calculation above.
Bias correction rests on 6 trusted farm-years
Remainder of season filled with 32-yr normals until observed

*The 2026 projected yield is the model's single best-guess estimate, assuming the rest of the season plays out at average historical weather. The confidence range (80% for corn, 70% for soybean) reflects a 30-year historical analog ensemble (see Model basis above) -- not a guarantee, but a realistic spread based on how similar years have actually turned out.

Data sources NASA POWER (temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) · USDA NASS QuickStats (Rock Island County yield history) · NWS/NDFD (FRET forecast) · Open-Meteo — GFS & ECMWF (7-day precipitation forecast)